{"id":15617,"date":"2014-05-03T19:00:25","date_gmt":"2014-05-03T16:00:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/e-marineeducation.com\/tr\/?p=15617"},"modified":"2024-01-16T21:27:03","modified_gmt":"2024-01-16T18:27:03","slug":"dunya-denizcilik-sektorune-genel-bir-bakis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/e-marineeducation.com\/tr\/dunya-denizcilik-sektorune-genel-bir-bakis\/","title":{"rendered":"D\u00fcnya Denizcilik Sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne Genel Bir Bak\u0131\u015f"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ekonomik krizin yaralar\u0131n\u0131 sarmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan \u00fclkeler, 2008 ve sonras\u0131nda denizcilikte de krizin etkilerini \u00e7ok a\u011f\u0131r hissetti. Zaten kendi i\u00e7indeki dinamiklerle (a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 kapasite, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131…) k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir yap\u0131ya sahip olan denizcilik ekonomisi, finansal krizle beraber alt sekt\u00f6rlerinde de \u00e7ok sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler ya\u015fad\u0131. Bunlara ra\u011fmen d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin 2011<\/span><\/em> y\u0131l\u0131nda %2,8<\/em><\/span>, 2012<\/span><\/em>\u2019de %2,2<\/em><\/span> b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ger\u00e7ekten umut verici g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Bu verilere dayanarak asl\u0131nda krizin sadece bizi te\u011fet ge\u00e7medi\u011fi, bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyay\u0131 te\u011fet ge\u00e7ti\u011fi bile s\u00f6ylenebilir. Fakat i\u015fin rengi daha \u00e7ok geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelere bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nin 2011<\/em><\/span>\u2019de %1,6 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesine<\/span><\/em> ra\u011fmen 2012<\/span><\/em> y\u0131l\u0131nda binde 6<\/span><\/em> oran\u0131nda daralmas\u0131 ve 2013<\/em><\/span> y\u0131l\u0131nda sadece %0,1 b\u00fcy\u00fcmes<\/em>i<\/em><\/span> asl\u0131nda neden hala ekonomide \u00e7arklar\u0131n tam d\u00f6nmedi\u011finin, insanlar\u0131n hala kafas\u0131nda soru i\u015faretleri olu\u015ftu\u011funun bir g\u00f6stergesi olabilir. D\u00fcnyada toplam ithalat\u0131n<\/span><\/em> yakla\u015f\u0131k olarak %32<\/em><\/span>\u2019sinin AB<\/span><\/em> taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve uluslararas\u0131 ticaretin d\u00f6rtte \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fck k\u0131sm\u0131ndan fazlas\u0131n\u0131n deniz yoluyla<\/span><\/em> yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurursak asl\u0131nda bu verilerin, \u00f6zellikle AB verilerinin, denizcilik piyasas\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00e7ok da i\u00e7 a\u00e7\u0131c\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. T\u00fcm bunlara kar\u015f\u0131n IMF<\/span><\/em>\u2019nin uluslararas\u0131 ticaretin 2014<\/em><\/span>\u00a0y\u0131l\u0131nda %4,3<\/span><\/em>\u00a0 2015<\/em><\/span> y\u0131l\u0131nda ise %5,<\/em>3<\/em><\/span> artaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki tahminleri gelece\u011fe dair umutla bakmam\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yor. Hi\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcphesiz ki d\u00fcnya ticaretinin artmas\u0131 demek denizcilik piyasas\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferlenmesi ve ivme kazanmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na gelmektedir. Bu verilerin denizcilik a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131daki grafikle daha anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131r olacakt\u0131r:<\/p>\n

\"D\u00fcnya
Kaynak: Review of Maritime Transport 2013, UNCTAD<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Krizden sonraki toparlanma s\u00fcrecinden d\u00fcnya deniz ticareti de 2012<\/em><\/span>\u2019de %4,2 b\u00fcy\u00fcyerek<\/span><\/em> kendi pay\u0131n\u0131 ald\u0131. Bu s\u00fcre i\u00e7erisinde, limanlarda yakla\u015f\u0131k olarak 9,2 milyar ton<\/em><\/span> y\u00fck elle\u00e7lendi. Bu rakam\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7te birini petrol ve petrol \u00fcr\u00fcnleri<\/span><\/em> olu\u015ftururken, kalan k\u0131sm\u0131n ise yakla\u015f\u0131k 2,6 milyar tonunu 5 ana kuru y\u00fck<\/em><\/span> \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc olu\u015fturdu. Konteyner sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda ise 2010<\/span><\/em> y\u0131l\u0131ndaki y\u00fcksek b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ra\u011fmen (%13,1<\/em><\/span>) 2012<\/em><\/span> y\u0131l\u0131nda bu art\u0131\u015f sadece %3<\/span><\/em> civar\u0131nda kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Buna ra\u011fmen 600 milyondan fazla TEU<\/span><\/em> deniz ticaretinde kullan\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Konteyner sekt\u00f6r\u00fc<\/span><\/em> d\u00fcnya deniz ticaretinin miktarsal olarak %16<\/span><\/em>\u2019s\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturarak fazla dikkat \u00e7ekmese de \u00fcr\u00fcn de\u011feri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k olarak %50<\/span><\/em>\u2019sinden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturmas\u0131 market de\u011ferini g\u00f6zler \u00f6n\u00fcne sermektedir.<\/p>\n

Dola\u015f\u0131mdaki gemi t\u00fcrleri da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131na bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda ise tankerlerin<\/span><\/em> yakla\u015f\u0131k olarak sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn \u00fc\u00e7te birini<\/span><\/em> olu\u015fturdu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Y\u00fck gemisi<\/em><\/span> bu da\u011f\u0131l\u0131mda %40<\/em><\/span> ile aslan pay\u0131n\u0131 al\u0131rken ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fck\u00fcn de\u011feriyle ters orant\u0131l\u0131 olan konteyner gemileri d\u00fcnya filosunun yakla\u015f\u0131k olarak %12<\/span><\/em>\u2019sini olu\u015fturmaktad\u0131r. Bu filonun ortalama ya\u015f\u0131n\u0131n 20<\/span><\/em> olmas\u0131 ve en gen\u00e7 ortalamaya konteyner gemilerinin sahip olmas\u0131 (10,73 y\u0131l) dikkate de\u011fer ba\u015fka bir konuyu olu\u015fturuyor. \u00dclkeler aras\u0131ndaki da\u011f\u0131l\u0131ma bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda ise Yunanista<\/span>n<\/span><\/em>\u2019\u0131n bu filonun %15<\/span><\/em>\u2019inden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturmas\u0131, asl\u0131nda denizcilik gelene\u011fi olan \u00fclkelerin nas\u0131l \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bir ispat\u0131d\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye<\/span><\/em>\u2019nin pay\u0131n\u0131n %1.80<\/em><\/span>\u2019de kalm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131, bunun da yakla\u015f\u0131k olarak %60<\/span><\/em>\u2019dan fazlas\u0131n\u0131n kolay bayrak \u00fclkelerinde kay\u0131tl\u0131 olmas\u0131 sadece yetkili kurumlar\u0131n de\u011fil t\u00fcm i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f payda\u015flar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnmesi gereken bir konudur.<\/p>\n

Bu kadar makro bilgiden sonra asl\u0131nda hepimizin \u00e7ok daha merakl\u0131 oldu\u011fu konulardan biri olan navlun \u00fccretleri haddi i\u00e7in de olumlu konu\u015fmak maalesef pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil. Hamburg Gemi Brokerleri Derne\u011fi<\/span><\/em>\u2019nin Ekim 2007<\/span><\/em>\u2019den itibaren sadece konteyner navlun \u00fccretlerini dikkate alan endeksi incelersek \u015f\u00f6yle bir tabloyla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131yoruz:<\/p>\n

\"Grafik_2\"<\/p>\n

Bu tablo genel olarak asl\u0131nda denizcilik sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn krizden sonra ne kadar zorland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bize g\u00f6steriyor. Tanker ta\u015f\u0131ma \u00fccretlerine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda ise Baltic Tanker Clean Index<\/span><\/em>\u2019in(BCIY) 2009-2014<\/span><\/em> y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda 800 ila 550 puan<\/span><\/em> civar\u0131nda dalgaland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ama ne yaz\u0131k ki Nisan 201<\/em>4<\/em><\/span>\u2019te 2009 seviyesi olan 550 puan<\/span><\/em> civar\u0131na geriledi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. Baltic Tanker Dirty Index\u2019in \u201cClean<\/span><\/em> Products<\/em><\/span>\u201d\u2019a oranla daha iyi seviyelerde oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir. Her ne kadar Ocak 2014\u2019te 1000 puan seviyelerini g\u00f6rse de Nisan\u2019da tekrar 700 puan seviyelerine gerilemi\u015ftir. Kuru y\u00fck gemileri i\u00e7in Baltic Dry Index<\/span><\/em>\u2019e bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131kan manzara yine ayn\u0131 oluyor. 2010<\/em><\/span> y\u0131l\u0131nda 4156<\/span><\/em> seviyesine ula\u015fan endeks 17 Nisan 2014 g\u00fcn\u00fcn\u00fc 908<\/span><\/em> ile kapatm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Kuru y\u00fck piyasas\u0131nda 180.000 DWT<\/span>\u2019luk 2011 yap\u0131m\u0131 bir gemi<\/span><\/em> 24.000$ g\u00fcnl\u00fck \u00fccretle<\/span><\/em> kiralan\u0131rken, 73.000 DWT’luk 1998 yap\u0131m\u0131 geminin 13.000$\u2019a kiralanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r<\/span><\/em>. Her ne kadar burada g\u00f6sterdi\u011fimiz endeksler kendi aralar\u0131nda gemi t\u00fcrlerine g\u00f6re ayr\u0131lsa da bize piyasa \u015fartlar\u0131n\u0131 sunmaktad\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Piyasa \u015fartlar\u0131nda olumlu geli\u015fmeler ya\u015fansa da hala krizin etkilerinin a\u015f\u0131lamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok a\u00e7\u0131k bir ger\u00e7ektir. Denizcilik piyasas\u0131nda a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 arz durumu ise krizi daha da derinle\u015ftirmektedir. Piyasa oyuncular\u0131 yak\u0131n gelecekten umutlu olsa da maalesef hen\u00fcz sis perdeleri aralanm\u0131\u015f de\u011fil.<\/p>\n

Edit\u00f6r: Orkut Akar<\/span><\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Ekleyen: Gamze Nur Yal\u00e7\u0131n<\/span><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ekonomik krizin yaralar\u0131n\u0131 sarmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan \u00fclkeler, 2008 ve sonras\u0131nda denizcilikte de krizin etkilerini \u00e7ok a\u011f\u0131r hissetti. Zaten kendi i\u00e7indeki dinamiklerle (a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 kapasite, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 fiyat dalgalanmalar\u0131…) k\u0131r\u0131lgan bir yap\u0131ya sahip olan denizcilik ekonomisi, finansal krizle beraber alt sekt\u00f6rlerinde de \u00e7ok sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler ya\u015fad\u0131. Bunlara ra\u011fmen d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin 2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda %2,8, 2012\u2019de %2,2 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ger\u00e7ekten umut verici …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1578,"featured_media":15619,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[522],"tags":[2319,1930,2328,2327,2318,1472,2326,2320,2321,1003,2324,2325,2322,2323],"class_list":["post-15617","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","","category-ozel-yazilar","tag-ab","tag-avrupa-birligi","tag-baltic-dry-index","tag-baltic-tanker-dirty-index","tag-baris-anil-cetin-yazilari","tag-gamze-nur-yalcin-eklemeleri","tag-hamburg-gemi-brokerleri-dernegi","tag-imf","tag-international-monetary-fund","tag-orkut-akar-duzenlemeleri","tag-review-of-maritime-transport-2013","tag-teu","tag-uluslararasi-para-fonu","tag-unctad"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nD\u00fcnya 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